Must Read: A Narrative of Vikas & Vijay Yatra Scripted in Gujarat Verdict of 2017 - The Fearless Indian
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Must Read: A Narrative of Vikas & Vijay Yatra Scripted in Gujarat Verdict of 2017

  • Sukanya Iyer
  • December 30, 2017
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Swami Vivekananda says, “Take Risks in your Life”

If you win, you can Lead, if you Lose, You Can Guide!

As I pen down my thought process, towards Gujarat which was a bit of surprise to many but not to me, In fact, In Gujarat BJP has increased its vote share to 49%, in spite of Anti-Incumbency factor for last 22years.As United opposition had stated the fact that Diamond Traders were upset with Surat, but to a surprise for many, a fitting Rebuttal was given to the naysayers as BJP won 16/16, a complete sweep in Surat, though there were fake Propagandas which was well orchestrated by many in Mainstream Media for the last couple of months since the implementation of GST & Demonetisation. Our PM Modi whose honest Intent & Convictions clear made to implement bold structural reforms like Demonetisation & GST leading to curbing of Stashed Cash, Unified Market Structure. Had our PM Modi thought about UP elections, which was swept away completely by BJP decimating Samajwadi Party & Congress, & others, he wouldn’t have implemented all these Reforms which made people to understand the Process of Cleansing a Termite which crept into the system, rather used his prudence & wisdom to take 1.25bn people into confidence honestly with his dedicated levels towards his citizens, for which people of India gave a fitting reply in UP, Gujarat & Himachal Pradesh.

Now friends let me give you a bird’s eye view of Gujarat Verdict of 2017- As BJP Records Sixth straight win in Assembly Polls

Our PM Modi Congratulated the people of Gujarat & Himachal Pradesh, & he also opined by saying that the BJP was the only party which won on the Agenda of Development and that those who indulged in Mockery of “Vikas had been taught a fitting Lesson by people effectively. The BJP secured its sixth Consecutive straight victory in the Gujarat Assembly Election 2017. Our PM Modi also asked his opponents to recognize the people’s verdict & accept that the Politics had changed & there is no place for hatred anymore in Gujarat.

Let me give you all some facts & Figures of Gujarat Verdict of 2017

The Voter Turnout in the second phase of balloting on December 14, for 93 seats of North & Central Gujarat, stood at 69.99 percent. In the first phase of polls, held on December 9th, for 89 seats in Saurashtra, Kutch & South Gujarat, 66.75 Percent polling was registered. In terms of Numbers, of the total 4.35 Crore registered Voters, 2.97 Crore exercised their votes in the elections held on December 9 & 14. The Election Commission data showed that the Tribal-dominated Narmada District, witnessed the highest voter turnout of 79.15 percent, while Devbhumi-Dwarka of Saurashtra region recorded the lowest at 59.39 percent.  The Districts which recorded a high turnout were Tapi (78.56 Percent), Banaskantha (75.15 percent), & Sabarkantha (74.97 percent). The Districts which saw a low turnout are Amreli (61.29), Bhavnagar (61.56), & Porbandar (61.86). Out of the total 33 Districts,15 recorded over 70 per cent polling, while 17 others were moving around between 60 Percent to 70 Percent. Only Devbhumi Dwarka District registered polling below 60 percent.

Let me in a detailed manner give you facts & figures of voting Pattern by Gujarat to BJP & Congress—

  1. The 30 seats in which NOTA was greater than the victory margin was evenly distributed between BJP & Congress. Godhra is one of the seats that have high recall value and the victory margin of the BJP candidate was 258, while 3,050 opted for NOTA. An underlying story of the elections was the rise in BJP’s vote share despite a significant decline in Tally.
  2. Compared to 2012, BJP’s vote share went up by 1.25% to 49% while Cong registered a rise by 3.17 to 42.%. what we find is that in most cases, a Party that secures close to 50%, of popular vote becomes a runaway winner. This has not happened for two reasons: Firstly, the contest in Gujarat has become fiercely bi-polar, with a vote share of Independent candidates declining from 5.83% to 4.3%, & that of other parties dropping from 7.39% to 5.2%. It needs to be recalled that in 2012, Keshubhai Patel’s GPP bagged 3.63% Votes & this was picked by both parties. Secondly, BJP vote share increased because its wins were bigger compared to that of Congress.

 Key Takeaways from Gujarat Verdict 2017—

Gujarat 2017 is a narration of rural Urban dichotomy, & BJP Prevailing thanks to many an Urban surge. BJP gained maximum in Urban areas. But at the same time, Congress strike rate in rural & Urban seats was significantly lower. BJP won 34 out of 38 seats, whereas Congress managed just 76 out of 114, rural & Urban seats. Congress failed to carry its momentum in Saurashtra to North, Central Gujarat. Urban sprawls of Ahmedabad, Surat, Rajkot, Vadodara, Jamnagar, Junagadh, Gandhinagar, & Bhavnagar account for 77 Assembly Seats. Of these, 55 assembly seats are from Ahmedabad, Surat, Rajkot, Vadodara, BJP won 44 of these leaving just 11 for Congress, the reason being Bhavnagar, Junagadh, & Jamnagar are in Saurashtra. Despite visible Anti-incumbent sentiment, the vote share of Congress in rural areas is close to that of 2012, indicating its failure to encash it.

Our PM Modi’s departure from the seat of Power in Gandhinagar to New Delhi adversely hit BJP, rural discontent in Saurashtra needs special focus & the Party has to assuage feelings of all communities. These were few points that emerged during preliminary evaluation the BJP brass had on the Gujarat Assembly Elections.

Most importantly Patidars, the caste movements which created quite a stir by the Trio, Hardik Patel, Jignesh Mevani, a Dalit, & Alphesh Thakur. Top leaders in the party felt that it was quite remarkable that for 6th consecutive time facing Anti-Incumbency issues, BJP emerged as a victorious party, still would have fared, much better.

Saurashtra is caught under Agrarian Distress—Announcement of Increased Procurement came late & most growers were outside the formal Procurement system. Minimum Support Price for Kapaas, Groundnut which wasn’t addressed properly. While CM Vijay Rupani & Jitu Vaghani won their seats, it was very evident that they had to completely depend on Party President Amit Shah, & PM Modi as a star Campaigner, as he is the son of the soil of Gujarat, & being a former CM of Gujarat, A Trust Vote by People of Gujarat to PM Modi. BJP is closely watching Patidars, face Paresh Dhanani, from Amareli. However, the support of Backward communities would be necessary to consolidate support for BJP in years to come. “Alpesh has come through a Social Movement”. But unfortunately, how social movements had made Gujarat a conflict zone in past two years.

Key Focus will be on Patel Dominated Saurashtra, where BJP lost 13 seats. In fact, Vijay Rupani was very Instrumental in making a beginning to take care of Saurashtra as compared to others.

I feel friends, A win Is a Win, Although, this by all accounts, a modest Victory. Given the fact that BJP dominates the scene, as an Electoral Force today, Gujarat forms the epicenter of BJP Party. The Reason for our PM Modi, the person which keeps going for BJP—It is very Evident of the fact that he still has connections with the Voters, understands their pulse too. His personal credibility continues to be very high. People are motivated by his commitment levels to which he works in a Mission mode of Achieving it selflessly & Tirelessly towards the uplifting of a common man. Gujarat showed “Modi” still a Trusted brand, over Congress, as the latter also failed to capitalize on Anti-Incumbency& did not come across as an alternative for the majority of Voters. Gujarat was the original lab of Hindutva & it continues to be the bastion of BJP but 2017 results also showed the darker side of the Picture which was that of welding together of New Economic forces &Social identities that have come together to create a Matrix for the Party. Congress is in power with only 2 states- Karnataka, & Punjab. BJP needs to capitalize on Anti -Incumbency as we move towards 2019. I feel Rahul Gandhi, the Congress President will have to sustain the kind of Political configuration, he deployed in Gujarat, At the end, I would like to say is that our PM Modi has delivered Gujarat, & Extra Premium that he brings to BJP has been accentuated even more by the results. BJP total tally rose up to 100 seats with one Independent announcing his support to BJP.

Friends, As I conclude my thoughts on the fiercely fought battle of Gujarat Election 2017, Our PM Modi possess a keen sense of Perceiving what Gujaratis feel & what kind of issues, they are likely to respond too. He had strategized mind game Effectively, towards the final phase of Election. To deflect the attention from the adverse Publicity of GST, related difficulties to small traders, He succeeded in Scaring a good number of dissatisfied Patidars, OBCS & Small traders, that Congress return to power would be an apocalyptic occurrence in many ways. Shankersingh Vaghela deserted the Party along with 13 Legislators from Congress, Organizational shortcomings, factionalism, & Inability to Project a CM face from Congress, constrained Congress comeback as such. Gujarat people proved the fact that Vikas Gando Nahin, Vikas Zinda hai Aur Hameshaa Rahegaa.

PM Modis whose visionary moves created a devastated Bhuj city from deadly Earthquake through his empowered policies directed towards the welfare of common Man to the most developed city of Bhuj in Gujarat. Indeed, our PM Modi is the true son of Gujarat, & The greatest son of India. All visionary thought Process of our able leader, PM Modi, will be directed towards Vikas & Parivartan of all communities, across all sectors, across all areas of Gujarat. Thank You, Gujarat for selecting a Leader who is strong, Progressive thinker, Vibrant & believes in SabkaSaathSabkaVikas. Our PM Modi thanked Gujarat & Gujaratis Voting for Vikas & Vishwas of Gujarat. A Script which is well Scripted by our Leadership for many more Years to come.

Thank You, Gujarat for showing Prudence & Electoral Maturity in Addressing the issues at the same time Trusting a Leader who has worked more than half of his life for the sake of Gujarat

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